COVID-19 Modeling Pt. 3

In my last post, I mentioned the SIR (susceptibility, infected, and recovery) model that incorporates the interaction effect between variables. SIR models can range from simple models, such as the following:

To complex models, such as the SEIR (susceptibility, exposure, infected, recovered) Vensim simulation model. derived by Tom Fiddaman of Ventana, the SEIR is an example of a complex system dynamics approach to modeling. The benefit of advanced SIR or, in this case, SEIR models are that they allow policymakers to simulate the impact of various policy actions. For example, it is possible to simulate how social distancing might move the curve of infected individuals to a later period, and better understand how social distancing might impact the number of deaths resulting from overwhelmed healthcare systems.


While all the models described to this point can help policymakers or community leaders forecast and consider “what-if” scenarios, they do not do an excellent job of helping to determine if variables of interest, such as if the number of cases or number of deaths is beginning to decline. In this situation, what is needed is a tool which will make it easy to determine if contiguous areas should receive extra assistance or if a community is ready to reopen. In the next post, I will describe some industrial methods which can help with these types of issues. Until next time, remember to protect yourself which also helps protect your neighbors and community.

2 thoughts on “COVID-19 Modeling Pt. 3”

  1. The availability of fetal and neonatal lung tissue is an invaluable resource to elucidate the molecular regulation of human lung development. In this study, we have investigated the mRNA and protein stability of perinatal lung tissues treated with RNA (Ambion Inc., Austin, TX) or snap frozen in liquid nitrogen (LN ). Lung samples were obtained from 25 consecutive perinatal autopsies of live-born and stillborn infants (median gestational age, 23 weeks) with various clinical presentations. Treatment of lung tissue with RNA yielded more total RNA and protein than LN freezing. The integrity of RNA, assessed by spectrophotometry and gel electrophoresis, was equivalent between both tissue preservation methods, and both methods produced RNA suitable for reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis of representative genes (beta-actin and surfactant protein-B [SP-B]). Similarly, the protein integrity of RNA -treated tissues was equivalent to that of LN -frozen tissues, as judged by Western blot analysis of SP-B/actin protein expression. Although the total yield was similar in live-born, nonmacerated stillborn and macerated stillborn infants, only RNA and protein from live-born or nonmacerated stillborn infants was suitable for subsequent molecular analyses. Within the 41-hour range studied, the duration of the postmortem interval did not affect the yield or integrity of RNA and protein with either tissue preservation method. In summary, high-quality RNA and protein, suitable for routine molecular analyses, can be obtained from postmortem lung tissue from live-born and nonmacerated stillborn infants, even with prolonged postmortem intervals. RNA is equivalent, if not superior, to LN for preservation of postmortem RNA and protein in developing human lungs.

  2. There is a way to effectively clean lung to repair scare tissue but it’s 70% oxygen enriched seylean 20% Karaten and 10% pure allow this would be inserted with a needle at the top of the lung and at the bottom a drain the hypoallergenic cleaner is injected from the bottom as the lung fills with Saylean the cleaner is injected and hold for 4 min then drain you will clean years of carbon and toxics from the lung if we could find the cure this would be the easy way to repair CoVin 19 from the lungs while destroy the sinus and throat with other medication

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