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COVID-19 Modeling Pt. 4
In my previous post, I discussed models that can be used to forecast the future behavior of the pandemic. One of the limitations of these models is that they are complex and need to be recalibrated or updated frequently. What would be helpful is an analysis technique that would allow us to monitor various factors …
COVID-19 Modeling Pt. 3
In my last post, I mentioned the SIR (susceptibility, infected, and recovery) model that incorporates the interaction effect between variables. SIR models can range from simple models, such as the following: To complex models, such as the SEIR (susceptibility, exposure, infected, recovered) Vensim simulation model. derived by Tom Fiddaman of Ventana, the SEIR is an …
COVID-19 Modeling Pt. 2
In the last post, I presented a COVID-19 model in which a curve-fitting model was used to fit the number of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina. One of the problems with modeling the number of COVID-19 cases at this early stage is that it is nearly impossible to know with any degree of certainty how …